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Good Stocks Cheap: Value Investing With Confidence For A Lifetime Of Stock Market Outperformance Boo

  • kennedyphillipp96
  • Aug 18, 2023
  • 6 min read


-Master any company with fundamental analysis-Distinguish between a company's stock price from its worth-Measure your own investment performance honestly-Identify the right price at which to buy stock in a winning company-Hold quality stocks fearlessly during market swings-Secure the fortitude necessary to make the right choices and take the right actions




Good Stocks Cheap: Value Investing with Confidence for a Lifetime of Stock Market Outperformance boo




In a straightforward and accessible manner, The Dhandho Investor lays out the powerful framework of value investing. Written with the intelligent individual investor in mind, this comprehensive guide distills the Dhandho capital allocation framework of the business-savvy Patels from India and presents how they can be applied successfully to the stock market. The Dhandho method expands on the groundbreaking principles of value investing expounded by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger.


In 100 to 1 in the Stock Market, Thomas Phelps discloses the secrets and strategies to increasing your wealth one hundredfold through buy-and-hold investing. Unlike the short-term trading trends that are popular today, Phelps's highly logical, yet radical approach focuses on identifying compounding machines in public markets, buying their stocks, and holding these investments long term for at least 10 years. In this indispensable audio guide, Phelps analyzes what made the big companies of his day so profitable for the diligent, long-term investor.


Beat the market with the tips and techniques from the best value investors in the world. Value Investing, Second Edition is your guide to implementing value investing principles in your own portfolio, complete with a look at the approaches used by the best value investors past and present.


-Master any company with fundamental analysis-Distinguish between a company's stock price from its worth-Measure your own investment performance honestly-Identify the right price at which to buy stock in a winning company-Hold quality stocks fearlessly during market swings-Secure the fortitude necessary to make the right choices and take the right actions


While value stocks tend to be cyclical and more vulnerable to economic downturns, we believe the economy remains on solid footing to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace because of tightening monetary conditions. When faced with inflation, near-term profitability is more important than longer-term cash flows.


The best of the cyclical stocks, those well-positioned competitively, are likely candidates for outperformance as markets anticipate the re-start of economic growth. A disciplined strategy of buying world-class cyclical companies during the downturn may prove very rewarding when markets begin to price in recovery.


To temper volatility from cyclical stocks that are influenced by the economy, adding equities with consistent earnings growth seems prudent. A good example of this are companies that provide outsourcing for operations such as finance and accounting, reporting, web development, call centers, HR functions, marketing, and so on.


The most undervalued stocks in many markets globally discount recession and structural disruption. Banks, maligned in a period of falling interest rates, trade at near-crisis levels, especially European ones. Global auto stocks trade at meager valuations versus history and compared with other cyclical segments of the markets, such as capital goods. Energy stocks are also trading at historically depressed levels.


The forces of supply and demand dictate the price of semiconductors as well as oil, with the lowest marginal cost producers having a distinct advantage over the competition. Advertising, including the internet, also has a cycle. The last time markets ignored the cyclicality of technology was in the late 1990s, a rough period for the most overvalued stocks.


As of late May, over 200 Japanese stocks with market caps above $1 billion also have dividend yields greater than 2 percent (several offer yields of 4 percent), with dividend payout ratios less than 50 percent. In other words, these dividends should be well covered by earnings, and (thanks to the low payout ratios) have room to grow.


Year-to-date, GARP names have performed in line with the market. While GARP is an effective, all-weather style, it can struggle when inflation is accelerating. However, the environment may be shifting again. Inflation is probably close to peaking and investors are becoming equally concerned with slowing growth. Many growth names were overpriced, but their unusually high pandemic premium has dissipated. Going forward, investors should revisit profitable growth stocks where valuations have become more reasonable.


Since November, several related themes have dominated equity markets: a remarkably quick vaccine effort, layer-upon-layer of fiscal stimulus, fears of inflation and higher interest rates. Given this backdrop, investors have rotated towards value-oriented, high beta, cyclical stocks. [High-beta stocks are stocks that are more volatile than traditional stock-market benchmarks.] Going forward I would stick with two of these themes: cyclicals and value.


After being written off as dead, value stocks have staged a comeback. The rally is part payback following years of underperformance and partly a reaction to the best growth in decades. However, today the more speculative parts of value are stalling. For example, recently small-cap value has struggled relative to large-cap. Part of the headwind for small caps is that they are inherently more volatile. While investors are looking for cyclical exposure, they are turning more cautious on pure market risk.


While EM looks inexpensive, the stocks can struggle even with modest valuations, as investors were reminded last year. Often the challenge is U.S. monetary policy. Emerging-market stocks were some of the worst performers last year as the Federal Reserve hiked rates and the U.S. dollar rose. In contrast, the current environment looks much more supportive. The Fed is on hold, real interest rates are stable and, most important, the dollar appears contained, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stuck in a range for the past six months.


In addition to value, there are two other reasons to consider raising the allocation to energy shares. Historically, energy stocks have been more resilient than the broader market during periods of rising interest rates and/or inflation. If part of what has dislocated the market is the challenge of navigating higher interest rates, energy companies offer a reasonable hedge. Finally, large integrated energy companies are offering dividend yields north of 4 percent. In a yield-starved world, this looks attractive.


U.S. preferred stock is currently yielding about 5.50 percent. This compares favorably with most of the other alternatives, including high-yield, investment-grade and emerging-market debt, and a basket of U.S. common dividend-paying stocks. [Preferred shares are sort of a stock and bond hybrid; they generally pay a fixed dividend and put you ahead of common-stock holders in cashing in shares if the company's assets are liquidated.]


It would be easy to follow the crowd and recommend equities or Bitcoin. But the current optimism has pushed valuations for global stocks to levels higher than those seen at the peak of the tech bubble in January 2000. These valuations are often justified by policy rates close to zero. For us, justifying extreme valuations in equities with extreme valuations in bonds simply highlights the fragility of market conditions. Any change in the balance between activity and inflation could challenge these valuations in 2021.


Given our views on Treasuries and TIPS, U.S. investors looking to reallocate funds within the U.S. equity market should focus on bond-sensitive sectors such as utilities, and prefer growth and quality factors rather than value. We would also suggest gold as a good hedge against any dollar weakness or recession.


Another equity strategy is to buy U.S.-exposed stocks in markets that have sold off aggressively for other reasons. A basket of U.S-exposed euro-zone stocks will likely perform well, and with Italian equities stressed due to domestic politics, companies such as Fiat-Chrysler Automotives N.V. and Luxottica Group SpA, which both have over 50 percent of their sales in the U.S., could provide a cheap route to buying U.S. earnings.


That index is at lower levels than it has been since the peak of the market in 2000. ... This is why I think -- I call it the "millennium boom" -- was a bubble, because people increasingly, as the 1990s went on, had lower and lower confidence in the valuation of the market, but they were still buying and bidding up prices. That's the sign of a bubble. So it looks to me a bit like a bubble again, with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and, at the same time, people losing confidence in the valuation of the market.


The terms βp,1, βp,2 and βp,3 represent the factor sensitivities or loadings to the three explanatory factors of the model. Applying the Fama and French model, Fung and Hsieh9 find that long/short equity funds are positively correlated with the equity market and statistically significantly exposed to the return spread between small and large capitalization stocks. According to Fung and Hsieh,9 the HML factor is not statistically significant. They introduce a momentum factor that is statistically significant but does not add much additional explanatory power. 2ff7e9595c


 
 
 

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